Victorians are set to shiver on the first day of winter as a low pressure system moves across the state bringing rain and potentially dangerous winds.

Senior Forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology Richard Russell said the southwest of the state would cop the force of the cool change on Monday morning before it moved to Melbourne in the afternoon.

A severe weather warning is in place for coastal locations in the state’s southwest, central districts and parts of the Gippsland region, Mr Russell said.

The cold front will bring significant rain, however conditions will be unstable, Mr Russell said, with some areas expected to receive about 5mm while others could see 20mm – 30mm of rainfall.

The worst of the weather for Melbourne will be in the mid-afternoon, with conditions easing in the evening.

The cool change will see temperatures drop substantially, with Melbourne forecast to reach a top of just 13C, a sharp fall from 17C on Sunday.

“Welcome to winter,” Mr Russell said.

AAP