With Melbourne’s average COVID case number average continuing to decline, modelling has confirmed Melbourne is on track to lift more restrictions in three weeks.

On Wednesday, Victorian premier Daniel Andrews said modelling from “multiple sources” confirmed Melbourne was on track for “significant” restrictions easing on October 19.

“With the falling number of active cases and the relatively low number of new cases I can report to you the strategy is absolutely working,” he said.

“The good news is our modelling from multiple sources confirms for all of us, we are on track.

“And all things being equal, we will be able to take a significant step in just three weeks time.”

The third steps means Melburnians will be able to have freedom of movement with no 5KM radius.

Currently, the 14-day average is at 16.4 but it needs to be below 5.


However, Victoria’s Chief Health Officer said that could change if the number of mystery cases was to decline.

“If we are at a point where we’ve got one or two cases a day, but they are all mystery cases, then we haven’t hit that five mystery cases over a 14 day period threshold and that would be a concern,” he said.

“But if it’s above five and majority of those cases are known, contained, linked and we’re confident of the control measures in place, then we might accept that as the threshold for the next step.

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